Welcome to the age of diminishing returns

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Happy new year from Cassandra



Despite all her magic spells, sometimes even Cassandra has troubles in predicting the future.
(image: painting by John Waterhouse)



Every year, during the past few years, I have been publishing a post with my predictions for the new year on my Italian blog. I think I have been rather successful in this role of mine as Cassandra, the prophetess. Sometimes, I have been surprised myself of how accurate some of my statements have been. For instance, at the beginning of 2008 I said something about a coming financial crisis and how I expected oil prices to crash (I stated that also in English, here and here). And, at the beginning of 2011, I said that I expected big troubles for the European Union (see here, in Italian). You see? I think I should be scared of what I have been doing. But, in reality, it was nothing more than common sense, good data,  and the general attitude that things never stay the same.

So, how about the coming year? I was planning to write something about what 2012 could bring but, this time, it is beyond my possibilities; I am overwhelmed. The situation is so complex, so unstable, so desperately out of control that, really, anything can happen. And most of the things that can happen are bad. War in Middle East, the breakdown of the European Union, financial collapses, the bursting up of Arctic methane, epidemics, famines, major environmental disasters..... Anything can happen, even that 2012 could be, miraculously, a quiet year.

So, all what I can say is "happy new year" to everybody and hope, just hope, that Cassandra's predicting power could make this wish true.

7 comments:

  1. Happy new year to you too, and to your extraordinarily beautiful town! Personally I "hope" for a total breakdown for 2012, and a return to radical traditionalism: http://turnabout.ath.cx:8000/node/13

    The sooner this happens, the smaller the pain. A pity it didn't happen 100 years ago, to minimize the suffering.

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  2. Interesting link, thanks. And happy new year to you, too!

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  3. Happy New Year, Ugo.

    Somehow, in the end, we will all muddle through. Thankfully we don't have too many folk, this time around, that are anxious to play with their soldiers.

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  4. Happy new year to you, too, Dave. And I hope you are right!

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  5. Dear Ugo, I wish you and all readers also al the best in the New Year and a high dose of realism. And yes, I am overwhelmed too, given that 100s of important stories occur EVERY WEEK! with regard to peak oil and climate warming

    Best wishes,

    Alex

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  6. Telepathy, Alex. I am just preparing a post on that link!

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