Italians are not singing anymore: No joke for this April 1st

The latest data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Tuscany, similar data describe also the situation in Italy.  The spread of the epidemic has been contained, but the true problems start now (data courtesy of Aldo Piombino) 

For some years, every year, I published an April's fool joke on Cassandra's Legacy. This year, I was thinking of something, but, really, I couldn't do that. It is no time for jokes. The situation in Italy, as everywhere, is dramatic and the worst has yet to come. Not so much in terms of the epidemic -- although it has hit hard,. But because of the consequences on the economy.

The reaction of the Italian government to the epidemic could have been worse, but it was far from perfect. It was uncertain at the beginning, then haphazard and focused only on day-to-day survival. Mostly, newspapers did what they do best: terrorize people by emphasizing the bad news. People have been bombarded with numbers always out of context, and with fake news exaggerating the threat. Then, politicians quickly discovered that scaring people pays and that, when people are scared, any politician can gain popularity by looking tough. It has been a race to look like the toughest of the pack.

Several prominent leaders from the right took the occasion to blame the European Union for everything and people seem to have swallowed the bait. They lashed out against Europe, Germany, and Angela Merkel, seen as ancestral enemies of Italy, as if we were still living at the time of the Roman Empire. The European flag has been taken down in many offices and government buildings, not yet burned and stepped upon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that happening. People are seriously talking about using the virus as an excuse to leave the European Union. This is worst than playing with fire: it is more like playing the Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun.

All this has been hard on people. We have been all locked inside our homes for more than 3 weeks, initially people took it as a joke: you heard the story of Italians singing from their windows and their balconies. But now we see an atmosphere of reciprocal suspicions: people have been reporting their neighbors to the police if they saw them walking out of their apartment. And the police took as their duty to sanction, sometimes with criminal charges, people who just interpreted in different ways the decrees of the government. Being locked at home with the police patrolling the streets is a nightmare: a dystopic science fiction movie, something one would never have expected to see in real life.

But the real problem is that the economy is wrecked. We lost the revenues from international tourism and several industrial sectors took such heavy blows that it is hard to see how they could ever recover. Lots of people have lost their jobs and they are at zero income for the foreseeable future. And they still have to pay their rent, their mortgages, their groceries. We have already seen food riots in Southern Italy, that has scared the government which is rushing to provide food stamps for the people who can't buy food. The government is expected to give money to almost everyone. Why not? They can print it, can't they? Sure...........

The good news that the epidemic is abating. Maybe we can still recover -- Italians are known to be resilient and enterprising. But, for this April 1st, there are no jokes to be told.

Why we will never run out of oil: an interview with professor Ugo Bardi

Today, this blog is proud to present in exclusive worldwide the transcript of an interview that Professor Ugo Bardi, the author of the book "Extracted," granted to the Ronkonkoma (*) Radio Station, Long Island, New York. 

- First of all, professor Bardi, thank you for accepting to speak to Ronkonkoma Radio. 

- It is a pleasure.

- So, before going on with the interview, a brief presentation for our listeners. Professor Ugo Bardi teaches at the university of Florence, in Italy, and he is well known for his studies on mineral resources and in particular on crude oil. About his work, we came to know that he recently obtained a major research grant from a large oil company. Is it true, professor?

- Yes, I can confirm that I received a grant, although I cannot disclose the name of the company.

- So, congratulations, professor. Do I understand correctly that this grant allowed you to make a major discovery in the field of oil production trends?

-  It is correct. It is a new model that I developed on the basis of some highly sophisticated mathematical methods to describe the future production of crude oil.

- And it led to you to the conclusion that we will never run out of oil?

- Basically, yes.

- I understand that the mathematics involved in the model is very complex, but could you describe your results in a simple way to our listeners?

- I think I can. So, think about this: before you run out of all of the oil you have, you have to use half of it, right?

- Yes.

- Now, if you have used half of your oil, it means that you are left with half of it. Is it right?

- Of course.

- Then, before you consume that half which is left, you have to consume half of that half, right?

- I think I can follow your logic, professor......

- And then, there will be another half, and then another, and so on.....

- That means we'll never run of oil, I guess.

- You have it.

- You know, professor, your model reminds me of something I studied in high school, something that involved a turtle and someone running after it; I don't remember his name.

- Oh, well, it is a remote origin of this model. Indeed, sometimes my students call it the "Achilles and the Turtle" model.

- But, professor, there is something that bothers me about all this. I understand your point, but as we divide our oil in half over and over, doesn't that mean we'll have less and less of it?

- No.... not at all.

- But why?

- Well, you should understand the mathematics of the model but, again, I can explain it in a simple way for our listeners. Let me go back to what I was saying. You have this oil, think of dividing it in two equal parts. Then you go on and you use the first half. You follow me?

- Yes. 

- Then you are left with the other half, correct?

- Correct.

- So, it makes no difference: you have the same amount of oil as before. Then, what's the problem?

- You know, professor, your logic is overwhelming, but I must confess that am a little confused.

- Well, I understand that, the mathematics involved is highly complex, indeed. But the end result is simple. You always have oil and you can produce as much of it as you like. There is just a little detail to consider. You have to invest more in extraction as you have less of it.

 - Doesn't that mean we have to pay more for oil?

- Yes, you have this minor inconvenience.

- I see..... Professor, something made me think again of that grant from an oil company. Could you tell us the amount of money your received?

- I am sorry, I cannot disclose that.

- So, thank you very much, professor Bardi, for being with us for this interview with radio Ronkonkoma, New York. Now a little break. 








(*) If you wonder about the name "Ronkonkoma" - it is a place that exists (and it even has a radio station). I used the name in this post because I lived in that area back in the 1970s