Friday, November 30, 2018

The Seneca Effect in Six Easy Steps


The Seneca Effect illustrated in an image by Roman Pfeffer

9 comments:

  1. Beautiful! A great analogy for all sides of politics in Australia at the moment too.

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  2. I love Roman's image. That about explains it. Gonna go share this at the collapse support subreddit. Cheers!

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  3. Where, or is it when, is the peak?

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    1. For the issues we consider, I think we do not know the answer to your question when we are approaching the peak. We do not know the answer when we are at the peak. We do not know the answer soon after we have passed the peak and started to fall. As our fall accelerates, we might then be able to estimate when the peak had been.

      The Seneca cliff curve is smooth. The real world is full of noise. The simplest model of the Seneca cliff would be a piecewise linear curve with three straight segments: a growth ramp, a horizontal peak/plateau, and a steep collapse. The next (more sophisticated) model would have five segments. We cut the two sharp corners in the three-segment model with a growth-to-peak/plateau transition line and a peak/plateau-to-collapse transition line.

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  4. This is a great way to visualize of our economy and our increasing debt.

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  5. Not bad, but I still like the one with the guy sitting on the end of the branch and sawing between himself and the trunk.

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  6. The brunch is the 1D case, this is the 2D, we live in the 3D one, falling into the 4th dimension

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  7. Amazing fun stuff!

    May I suggest this interesting link, it's a cool stuff for a catastrophic trend for Earth
    http://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252

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Who

Ugo Bardi is a member of the Club of Rome and the author of "Extracted: how the quest for mineral resources is plundering the Planet" (Chelsea Green 2014). His most recent book is "The Seneca Effect" (Springer 2017)