Why worry about pollution if life expectancy keeps increasing? Ahem.... are you sure?

It seems clear that we won't get to reach Methuselah's age. In most Western countries, the average life expectancy has started decreasing from 2014 and we are, maybe, on the edge of a Seneca Cliff for longevity. It could be an effect of pollution, but not just that. Image source.

If you ever got into a discussion on the effects of pollution, you know what happens. You list the problems with heavy metals, from lead to mercury, pesticides, fine particles, plastics, everything that is -- or may be -- carcinogenic, including the deadly glyphosate, aka Roundup. Then, there comes always someone who says, "but all that cannot be so bad! After all, people keep living longer and longer!"

Alas, very, unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Let me show you some data: let's start from the US (source).

And here are some data about European countries, from the World Bank

Clearly, the nearly linear trend of growth of the life expectancy at birth stopped around 2014 in most Western countries. To put things in perspective, it is not the same for other countries: both in China and in Russia, life expectancy is lower, but it keeps increasing. (again, data from the World Bank)

Before going on, a disclaimer: there is sufficient uncertainty in the data that the trend should be considered as weak. We are on a plateau that might see oscillations that could be interpreted as a return to growth.

But, clearly, something has happened in 2014 that interrupted a trend so stable that it was considered not only the way things were, but the way things had to be. What was that? Data from an article by Gilbert Berdine can tell us something about what's happening, at least in the US.

The mortality of old people keeps declining, what's causing the overall decline in life expectancy is the rising mortality of the young. Berdine comments as (highlighting mine):

The rising mortality rates for young people are attributed to suicides in general and opioid overdoses in particular. These are deaths of despair. . . . It is unclear what is causing despair in young people during a period of time when we are told that the economy is expanding.

We are told that the economy is expanding, yes, but something seems to be wrong with that. In some countries, such as Italy, the economy has been contracting for at least a decade. In the US, instead, the data show that the economy is skyrocketing upward, at least if measured in terms of the GDP. America is becoming great again, actually it never stopped being that (again, in terms of the GDP). So, why is the life expectancy going down in both countries?

What's making the young killing themselves by guns and drugs? Might pollution be affecting people's mental sanity? Yes, that's exactly the case. In a recent paper, Shin and others report that not only pollution causes "subjective stress, depressive disorders, health-related quality of life (QoL) and suicide." They don't speak about life expectancy but they say, "The risk of higher stress or poor QoL in subjects < age 65 increased with air pollution more than did that in subjects ≥ age 65"

So, it is clear that pollution is taking its toll on human health, especially among the young. That may explain the "despair" that Berdine considers the cause for the increased mortality. And there may be perfectly good reasons for the young to despair, even without the help of pollution. In any case, we may have reached a Seneca Cliff of life expectancy.

Another dream of our society that turned into a nightmare. Another chunk of future that we stole from our children and grandchildren. No wonder that they are not happy with us.

Keeping the Morale High: Measuring Pollution by Simple Instruments

I think it was General Heinz Guderian who said that when the morale of the soldiers is low, especially when they are in a defensive position, you give them something to do, for instance preparing an attack. And I think the situation in which we are requires something like that. It doesn't mean having people physically attacking someone, but taking an active role; doing something.

Here, Miguel Martinez reports about the installation a pollution measurement device in Florence, the Airquino, in a public garden managed by the Nidiaci Commons. The instrument is very simple and it provides data on various atmospheric pollutants. It is a way to take an active role in fighting pollution and keeping the commons alive and well. A good idea coming from Italy!

The Air as Commons at the Nidiaci

By Miguel Martinez

On Wednesday November 8, technicians of the Institute of Biometeorology of Italy's National Research Council will come to the Nidiaci Commons in Florence's Oltrarno to install the first AIRQuino device in the district.

This is a simple plastic box, with a sensor and a chip which can accurately detect all the main air quality parameters and updates the data every two minutes.

This project, funded by the Regional Authority, aims at creating a dense network of small, very low cost monitoring stations, next to the official network of stations. The latter perform better, but are far more costly and there are only seven in all of Florence.

The Nidiaci garden, right behind the Carmine church where Masaccio ushered in the Renaissance, is run as a Commons by the families of the Oltrarno district. Their Impatto Nidiaci project focuses on spreading awareness and improving the quality of life of the residents of this historic district.

A district overrun by tourists and traffic, where an understaffed cooperative has to clean all the public parks according to an impossible schedule: when they do manage to come, everything from used nappies to electric batteries to the leaves from the trees is sent to the incinerator.

In the last few months, the families have introduced separate waste collection, set up an educational garden, imposed a smoking ban in the garden, purchased solar lamps to provide more sustainable lighting, used the leaves from the trees – hitherto thrown away in the general waste as in all public gardens in Florence – as compost.

The AIRQuino project will allow residents to become directly active in monitoring their own quality of life. To understand the operation of the AIRQino, Italian speakers can watch Italian speakers can watch this video.