The Cinderella Strategy: How to Restart the Italian Economy by Building a Bridge Across the Messina Strait

The former Italian prime minister, Mr. Silvio Berlusconi, evoking the Messina Strait by a magic spell in an image taken probably around  2002. As a modern version of Moses, Mr. Berlusconi didn't manage to do much more than creating a scale model. But the idea of building this monster (it would be the longest suspension bridge ever built), has been recurrent in Italy for decades. It is a dream that refuses to come true, no matter how much politicians get their inspiration from Cinderella.

The story of the Covid-19 epidemic never ceases to surprise me for one reason or another. Wrong models, superstar scientists, terrorized citizens, non-existing vaccines sold at high prices, the police fining people for taking a walk, snake oil in great abundance, and more. But this really hit me badly: would you believe what the Italian government is considering, now? Yes, in order to restart the economy after it was hit so badly by the lockdown, they are thinking of building a bridge over the Messina strait to connect Sicily to Italy. (really!). The longest suspension bridge ever built, assuming that it were possible to build it -- not obvious at all. It is a Cinderella-style dream that, likely, will never come true.

Maybe it is true what some people said, that the Covid-19 can sometimes affect people's brains, but the real explanation is another one: the unbreakable grip of obsolete ideas on the way people think. In times of crisis, leaders simply tend to go back to the solutions to old problems, without realizing that times have changed. So, we need to return to growth, we need to stimulate the economy, we need to build large infrastructures, we need (this too is being said!) to get rid of these stupid regulations about pollution that prevent the economy from restarting to grow.

That explains the return to the recurring idea to build this bridge that has been around for decades. Probably, the leaders are sincere in their feeling that if it were possible to start building this monster, then it would be a good thing for the Italian economy (and, of course, some of their friends would make a lot of money as a side effect). The concept that the economy needs energy and resources to keep going (to say nothing about expanding) is wholly alien to the people in charge.

So, will the bridge be built? Of course not, (see below for an explanation). But we'll hear about it for some more time and some money may be wasted on preliminary studies. What's truly fascinating is how economic thought has not budged of an inch after that Robert Solow proposed his economic model that saw growth as generated by an entity called "total factor productivity." Whatever that was, it couldn't be defined or measured, but it was supposed to grow exponentially forever and push the economy to grow in the same way. Natural resources didn't appear among the parameters of the model.

And so we are condemned to follow our dreams in a Cinderella world, always thinking that, if you keep on believing, the dream that you wish will come true.

Why the Messina Strait bridge will never be built. A note on energy based economics

Image from Tim Morgan, "Surplus Energy Economics"

The idea that the economy depends on the supply of energy should be obvious to anyone who ever owned a car. Take away the gas, and the car doesn't move, no matter how much you tinker with the carburetor. And it is not just cars that work in this way. Everything that moves, moves because it uses energy to move. If you want to say that in a fancy manner, you can say that living creatures, engines, hurricanes, rivers, and more move because they dissipate energy potentials. No energy potentials no life and no movement. 

It is hard to think that the human economy doesn't depend on the same factors. Indeed, one of the founders of economics, William Stanley Jevons, had already understood the question in his work on coal in the mid 19th century. But over more than a century of work, economics has drifted away from concepts related to physical factors. For some reason, economics, as it is today, remains linked to the idea that things such as the energy supply are not fundamental in affecting the performance of the system -- if they are considered at all.

The idea that things are different -- a lot different -- remains marginal and heretic, but it persists and over time it may gain some space -- although it takes an awful amount of time and effort. To learn the basics of the idea you can check the blog by Tim Morgan, "Surplus Energy Economics". Right now, he has a post that reviews the whole concept. It is an interesting read, highly recommended. 

One remark about Morgan's description: When he discusses the entity called "ECoE" (energy cost of energy invested) he doesn't seem to notice that it can be set as equal to 1/EROEI, the energy return on energy invested. Of course, you have to measure the cost in some units, and energy is the best one in this case. 

The behavior of ECoE is described by Morgan in qualitative terms as a parabolic curve -- going through a minimum (maximum prosperity) and then shooting up. If we equate ECoE to 1/EROI, it is not exactly so. This rate tends to taper off with time, as we found in a study we are preparing right now with my colleague Ilaria Perissi. Here is how our model describes the behavior of ECoE for a non-renewable energy source, such as oil.

You see that it tapers off, rather than growing quadratically as in Morgan's qualitative model. But that doesn't mean Morgan's model is wrong, it is approximately correct and, in any case, note how the cost of energy increases of a factor of a hundred over the depletion cycle (in the assumptions of this specific run). It means that some energy is still produced at this high cost only because the amount produced is reduced to a trifle. Note also that Morgan's curve takes into account technological progress and jumping from one source to another; our model doesn't. For an in-depth analysis, wait for the paper we have in preparation 

In any case, no matter what measurement you want to use, EROI or ECoE, the result is the same: there is no hope to keep going forever with a non-renewable energy source. Maybe you don't need models to understand this point, but take this one as a confirmation of what common sense tells us.

h/t Rafal

Is the Empire on the Edge of the Seneca Cliff? Italian Prime Minister Conte Opens to Russia at the G7

It is rare that a province of the Empire tries to pursue an independent foreign policy but, at the last G7 meeting, the new Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, did something like that. He stated that Russia should return to the G8 (now G7) and called for the lifting the economic sanctions against Russia.

In the past, such deeds on the part of provincial politicians didn't go unpunished by the Imperial Powers, but this time the Empire seems to be in disarray - with Emperor Trump himself seeming to pursue a policy of disengagement. Might Conte's statement be part of the start of a radical change in the Empire's structure, with the provinces becoming more independent from Washington? For sure, the Empire is not yet sliding down the unavoidable Seneca Cliff which will lead to its disgregation. But it seems that we are moving in that direction.

As a comment to Mr. Conte's declarations about Russia, I thought I could reproduce here a piece that I was planning to post on another blog of mine ("Chimeras") but which suddenly became appropriate for Cassandra's Legacy. It is the translation of a text written by Giuseppe Iannello in occasion of the centennial of the Earthquake of Messina - an Italian city on the North-Eastern tip of Sicily. The 1908 earthquake was a major disaster and the role of the Russian sailors helping the victims is still remembered nowadays in Italy.

Here, Iannello states, correctly in my opinion, "The people of other nations, offering their help, proved to be friends to the Italians, but the Russians turned out to be brothers."

 The Russian Sailors in Messina: Beyond the Myth

 by Giuseppe Iannello - 25 Dicembre 2008

A Russian sailor from the ship "Slava" standing in front of the rubble of the Messina Earthquake of Dec 28th, 1908.

by Giuseppe Iannello - 25 Dicembre 2008


Those were days of true glory in Messina. But organization and discipline are not enough to explain the undisputed fame of saviors and heroes of the Russian sailors. 

Six days of glory. Real glory, glory able to challenge time and the judgments of the scholars in retrospect. A glory told to us by the press, but above all told by the people, by the people who saw with their eyes and heard with their ears. The Russian sailors entered the collective memory as heroes, as saviors, obscuring all the other rescuers. Why? A useless question if we ignore the narration of those six days and embark on historical and psychological analysis. Because the answer lies, in fact, in the deeds of those thousands of sailors who arrived on six ships of the Russian military fleet. 

There are many myths to dispel and "adjustments" to be made to avoid that the heroism of a people is identified with that of individual figures who, in reality, were only catalysts of needs that were born from a collective soul. We refer, for example, to generals and admirals. The command of the expedition of the Baltic Sea Fleet in the Mediterranean had been entrusted to Admiral Litvinov and he was sent to him while in the port of Augusta on request from the local authorities to provide assistance to the people of Messina. But it was not he who "decided" to move, he needed approval from his superiors, he needed an order; which would mean the loss of many hours waiting for that order. It was because his subordinates, officers, ensign, simple sailors, understood the situation and pressed to leave for the Strait of Messina. And so they did. In his memories ("The Imperial fleet of the Baltic between two wars, 1906-1914") Garald Graf, then ensign in the Admiral Makarov, the first of the Russian ships to leave, tells us, "Litvinov was not a man who knew how to make up his mind," but in the end he was persuaded. 

From the beginning, obedience and discipline do not explain the efficiency and the success of the Russian relief work. In "La terra trema" (the ground shakes) by Giorgio Boatti it is even possible to talk about an "almost inhumane discipline". It is true, during the hours of navigation from Augusta the Russians had had time to organize themselves in teams, to prepare everything that could have been necessary for them. But the same could have been done by others. The merit of the Russians is not there. And it is not in the discipline nor in the organization, it is not in the method of their remarkable action. Michail Osorgin, a compatriot of those sailors, debunks the myth of the "method". And he does so immediately, just a month after the catastrophe, in a long correspondence from Rome for his newspaper, the "Vestnik Evropy". The reputation of the Russian navy had been nearly destroyed by the defeat that it had suffered in the Japanese-Russian War. The only method that led the sailors was for Osorgin to save as many "souls" as possible, the difference with everyone else was this tremendous need to wrest as many people as possible from death. 

The organization was dictated by this need: the schedules, the shifts, everything was functional for this purpose, the sailors placed no value in themselves; people's lives came before the orders and the simple sailors were the ones convincing their superiors to reshape orders. On the other hand, it must have sounded really strange in the ears of a Russian to be praised because of the organization of their army: what to say then - says the Russian journalist - about the organization and discipline of the Germans, who were also present at the place of the disaster? 

The Russian sailors became the catalyst of all the positive energies against the resignation, the discomfort, which often turned into apathy, in a sort of indifference that was often transmitted to rescuers. On the contrary, the action of the Russians was contagious and the cadets of the Sutley, the first British military ship to arrive, perhaps a few tens of minutes before the Makarov, felt it and understood how to distinguish themselves.

No stain therefore on the work of the Russians? That of the immediate shooting of the looters, thieves caught in the act: it is interesting to note how this particular is expressed only in journalistic reports and has been judged irrelevant by the collective memory, the oral and written memory handed down by the survivors from father to son, from generation to generation. The Russians did not actually deal directly with the hunting of the looters, but they used their weapons to defend themselves and defend a population totally exposed to the evil of the profiteers or to despair. The Russians (and the English) did not take care of the defense of property - as they did not bother to bury the dead - they took care of the people whom they heard whining under the rubble and to cure the wounds of the survivors.

We discuss this story with Tatiana Ostakhova, a researcher at the University of Messina, who lets us read something from her work in progress: the letters of Russian sailors published in Russian newspapers and other articles published in the weeks immediately following the earthquake. The letters are in part those already published by the Province of Messina in 2006, which however were based on an original edition in French. They are letters all characterized by common feelings: the inability to describe the indescribable, the horror of the scenario in which they operate, the madness of the survivors and the absurdity of which every hour are witnesses. The sailors are not exalted, they do not glorify, they only narrate and at times with amazement, they also take note of the immobility of the Italian forces. The comparisons will be made by the others, the correspondents, the other rescuers and above all the people who will not forget the good received. And the news of those good deeds will run like the wind: in Naples, the first landing of the wounded by Makarov turns into a sort of apotheosis for the Russian sailors, who are acclaimed. Wherever they were recognized in the city, the Russian sailors could not escape the warm manifestations of gratitude. 

Michail Pervuchin in his article "The Russians and the Italians", translated by Ostakhova, sums up the difference between the Russians and everyone else. The people of other nations, offering their help, proved to be friends to the Italians, but the Russians turned out to be brothers. The correspondent affirms it on the basis of the testimonies gathered and of what was read in the Neapolitan newspapers: "the others certainly helped; but the Russians have not only helped, they gave everything they had to the refugees, including their spare shirts". "In Palermo and Naples - continues Pervuchin - women and children, refugees from the destroyed cities, still show off their jackets and their sailor's jackets, the officers' jackets. There are no German or English clothes on refugees. Russian clothes, yes ". Then another testimony: "all have given, but while others gave the superfluous, the surplus, the Russians, and we saw it, they gave us what was necessary to themselves, even the last thing they had. Yes, to the last thing they had. This is what struck us ".

However, good does not always beget more good. In January, the Russian sailors were told, "thank you but your help is no longer necessary". A Russian correspondent speaks of envy in this regard, Colonel C. Delmè-Radclif, military attaché of the British Embassy in Rome, in a confidential report speaks of jealousy of the Italian authorities. The fact remains that only the Italian soldiers and a few other volunteers remained in the rubble: the gates were blocked for everyone else, including Italian civilians. The same refrain was repeated to all: there is no need for more help because the army has taken control of the whole city. The fate of many people, still alive under the rubble, was sealed.


Giuseppe Iannello